|
It's been over half a year since China dropped its zero-Covid policy and reopened its borders, but U.S.-China air travel is a long way from bouncing back. Weekly flights between the world's two biggest economies remain down around 95 percent from pre-pandemic levels.
Geopolitics is getting in the way of a recovery. Both the U.S. and China have imposed caps on the number of permitted weekly flights by airlines from each others' countries, although the Biden administration approved a modest increase in flights by Chinese airlines into the U.S. earlier this month, up to 12 from 8. Still, that is a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of weekly flights that circulated in 2019. The frosty relationship and Russia's invasion of Ukraine are likely to keep travel figures depressed for a while longer.
This week, The Wire looks at the state of U.S.-China air travel: how it's changed, what's getting in the way of a rebound, and what that means for fliers.
More than two hundred weekly flights regularly shuttled between the U.S. and mainland China prior to the pandemic. Routes were serviced by the U.S.'s big three airlines — United, American and Delta — alongside six Chinese carriers: Air China, China Southern, China Eastern, Xiamen Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Hainan Airlines.
But regular service collapsed when the pandemic began, and fell further as China tightened its zero-Covid policies. In 2021 and 2022, U.S. airlines provided no service to mainland China, according to data from Cirium, an aviation analytics firm. The few remaining flights were serviced by Chinese airlines, albeit at sky-high prices of as much as $7,100 for a one way ticket in economy class.
Flight frequencies and prices haven't improved much since then, even though China has reopened. In April, U.S. airlines flew on average just ten weekly flights to China, less than their approved cap of 12. Chinese airlines maxed out their then-cap of eight weekly flights.
| Routes Currently Flown by U.S. and Chinese Airlines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | Guangzhou | Shanghai | Xiamen | |
| Dallas | American Airlines | |||
| Detroit | Delta Airlines | |||
| Los Angeles | Air China | China Southern | China Eastern | Xiamen Airlines |
| New York | Air China | China Southern | China Eastern | |
| San Francisco | United Airlines | |||
| Seattle | Delta Airlines | |||
But after the U.S. and Russia banned each others' airlines from using their airspace in March 2022, U.S. airlines have been forced to take longer and costlier routes to Asia. A typical flight these days from Hong Kong to New York now traces the Japanese and Alaskan coasts, a path that is some 2,000 miles longer than the polar route.
Chinese airlines face no such restrictions, giving them a major cost advantage. As a result, U.S. airlines have lobbied the federal government to ban Chinese airlines from flying over Russia as a condition for a broader resumption of air travel between the two countries. So far, the U.S. hasn't imposed such conditions.
With aviation officials in the two countries at an impasse, consumers are paying the price.
In March, a one-way ticket in economy from the U.S. to China cost on average about $5,900 versus just $520 in the same month in 2019, according to data from OAG, another aviation data provider.
The airlines may be betting some reprieve is on the horizon. Cirium data shows that both American and Chinese carriers are scheduling more flights for this summer than are permitted under the current weekly cap: Chinese airlines have around 23 weekly flights scheduled for August; American carriers have 21, with Delta and United scheduling daily flights to China.
Eliot Chen is a Toronto-based staff writer at The Wire. Previously, he was a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Human Rights Initiative and MacroPolo. @eliotcxchen
