2011年12月07日 13:13 PMFT社评：普京"魔咒"已经失效 |
Russians have spoken, and more loudly than expected. The fall of nearly a quarter in the ruling United Russia party's share of Sunday's parliamentary vote shows how rapidly citizens are wearying of the political and economic system created by Vladimir Putin. That this protest was registered in spite of the panoply of dirty tricks used by the authorities – from psychological pressure on workers to vote for the ruling party to repeat voting by busloads of hired hands – makes it all the more potent. | 俄罗斯人民已经表态，而且声音比预想的更加响亮。上周日举行的杜马选举中，执政党统一俄罗斯党(United Russia)的得票率下降了近四分之一，这显示出俄罗斯人民对弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)创建的那套政治经济体制厌倦得有多么快。尽管俄罗斯当局使出了一整套肮脏伎俩——从向工薪阶层施加心理压力、迫使他们把票投给执政党，到用一辆辆大巴拉着雇来的人反复投票——俄罗斯人民的不满仍然得到了表达，而政府所为反而让这种表达更加强烈。 |
The spell Mr Putin cast over Russia for the past 11 years has been broken. This does not imperil his plans to return as president next March, if only because the authorities control who can stand against him. But Moscow has since Sunday seen its biggest opposition rallies in years; more are planned in other cities. The leadership must think hard how to respond. | 普京在过去11年里给俄罗斯施的魔咒已经失效。但这并不能威胁到他明年3月回归总统宝座的计划，原因至少有一点：当局掌控着谁能与普京展开竞选。不过，从上周日以来，莫斯科已发生多起数年来最大规模的反对派集会，其它城市还计划举行更多抗议活动。俄罗斯领导层必须认真思考应该采取何种对策。 |
One option is the iron fist. But strengthening authoritarianism would be dangerous. Attempting, say, to restrict internet access for the 51m Russians who use it could precipitate exactly the kind of protests the authorities seek to avoid. | 选项之一是铁腕政策。但加强威权统治会很危险。例如，若是企图限制5100万俄罗斯网民的互联网访问，可能恰恰会引爆当局努力避免的那类抗议活动。 |
The enlightened response would be to accept that while Mr Putin may not have changed since 2000, Russia has. Sunday's election showed a richer, more sophisticated electorate demanding change and a greater say in its own future. The best way for Mr Putin to rebrand himself would be through genuine reforms. | 明智的应对方案是接受如下事实：尽管普京从2000年以来未有任何改变，但俄罗斯已经发生了改变。上周日的选举表明，更加富足、更富思想的俄罗斯选民正在要求变革，要求对自己的未来拥有更大发言权。普京重塑自身形象的最佳办法是实施真正的改革。 |
He should remove the taint of cronyism and sleaze which hangs around all levels of the system, and made the blogger-inspired nickname for United Russia of the "party of swindlers and thieves" so difficult to shake. A good start would be a shake-up of the government, the presidential administration, and of regional governors. | 他应当铲除体制内各个层级都存在的任人唯亲和恶人当政的积弊。正是因为有这样的积弊，博客作者们给统一俄罗斯党取的绰号——"骗子小偷党"——才如此深入人心。全面调整政府、总统班子、和地方首长的人事安排，会是一个好的开端。 |
Political loosening should follow to allow modern, non-puppet parties to take root, in place of ageing communist and nationalist parties that currently provide the only alternative to United Russia. And economic reforms to lessen the boom-bust dependency on energy prices must finally be initiated. | 随后应当放松政治管制，允许现代化的、非傀儡的政党生存发展，取代老迈的共产主义和民族主义政党——目前除了统一俄罗斯党之外，选民们只能选择这些政党。还有，必须启动迟来的经济改革，降低俄罗斯经济兴衰周期对能源价格的依赖。 |
The risk is that the conservative Mr Putin instead simply attempts to muddle through and buy support with cosmetic reforms, a populist spending surge, and increasing anti-western rhetoric. Recent renewed sabre-rattling over US missile defence plans may be a foretaste. That would be deeply damaging for the country. It also threatens to make Russia under a weakened Mr Putin a trickier partner for the west than it was even at the peak of his powers. | 但风险在于，立场保守的普京可能只会想辙应付局面，通过实施表面性的改革、大幅增加民粹主义开支和发表日趋强硬的反西方言论来赢取支持。最近俄罗斯对美国导弹防御计划重新摆出好斗姿态，可能就是一个预兆。如果真的如此，那会对俄罗斯产生严重的不利影响。对西方来说，与普京权势处于顶峰时期的俄罗斯相比，权势遭削弱的普京统治下的俄罗斯，还可能因此变成一个更加难以对付的伙伴。 |
译者/何黎 |
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