越共面临体制危机
报道 2013年04月25日
越南胡志明市——他的书架上摆满了马克思(Marx)、恩格斯(Engels)及胡志明(Ho Chi Minh)著作集，这是忠诚跟随共产党事业的历程给他留下的印记。然而，77岁的阮福祥(Nguyen Phuoc Tuong)说，他已不再信奉共产主义。阮福祥曾为两位总理做过顾问，但现在，他像许多越南人一样，强烈谴责政府。
他在自己位于胡志明市郊区的公寓中接受采访时说，"现在，我们的体制是一党治国的极权统治，我自己出自这个体制，我了解这个体制的所有缺点、弊端及腐化现象。如果不解决这个体制的问题，它就会灭亡。"
Justin Mott for the International Herald Tribune
曾为两任越南总理担任顾问的马克思主义学者阮福祥说，"如果不解决这个体制的问题，它就会灭亡。"
1975年，越南共产党战胜了美国支持的南越武装。但现在，由于经济衰退，越共正面对日益增长的民怨。而且，越共也出现分裂，党内两派针锋相对，一派是传统势力，希望延续越南的社会主义指导原则和越共的绝对权力，而另一派则呼吁体制多元化，并完全接纳资本主义。
最重要的可能是，在越共正在竭力应对的这个社会中，由于新闻及观点绕过了国家控制的媒体，通过网络传播，人们得以了解到了更多信息，也更倾向于批评。
自从38年前统一越南以来，越共历经过考验，既有同中国和柬埔寨的冲突，又有金融危机及内部分裂。卡莱尔·A·塞耶(Carlyle A. Thayer)说，现在的新情况是，对于领导层的批评"已经在全社会爆发开来"。他是国外研究越南问题的主要专家之一。
塞耶说，越南的环境在其他方面都很极权，但党内的分歧实际上有助于鼓励言论自由，原因是各个派系都急于抹黑其他派系。
他说，"在越南有种矛盾的现象，异见越发活跃，与此同时，压制也是如此。"
随着在越南9200万国民中，异见的声音越来越多，政府也试图要进行镇压。法庭将无数博客作者、记者和活动人士判处监禁，但是，批评声，尤其是在网上，似乎有增无减。政府屏蔽了一些网站，但是许多越南人会使用软件或某些网站来设法绕过审查。
作家张辉产(Truong Huy San)说，"比起以前，努力表达自己的观点、批评政府的人多了很多，他们的言辞也更加严厉。"张辉产也是记者及知名博客作者。
张辉产现在正在哈佛大学(Harvard University)参加一项访问学者项目。他著有《获胜方》(The Winning Side)一书，这本书可能是自1975年以来，越南国内人士撰写的第一部具有批判性的、全面的越南历史。这本以辉德(Huy Duc)为笔名写就的两卷本著作，未经政府许可就付印，在越南被广泛阅读。书中描述了清洗不忠诚党员和没收南越企业主资产等举动。
对于一般造访越南的人来说，越南表面上呈现的经济进步，使人很难理解许多越南人所表达的那种深深的悲观。数百万人在10年前只有自行车，现在却能骑着摩托车在工厂和办公大厦旁的道路上飞驰。
改革催生了处于越共严密监控之下的怪异市场经济，随后，越南经济在20世纪90年代蓬勃发展。即便是在现在，越南经济预计仍会以4%到5%的速度增长，部分原因在于越南大量出口大米 、咖啡及其他农产品。
然而房地产市场由于供过于求而陷入停顿，银行坏账负担沉重，报纸上满是失业率提高的文章，越南也被全球腐败观察机构"透明国际"(Transparency International)列为腐败最严重的国家之一。（在包含176个国家的名单中，越南排名123，排名越靠前，腐败程度越低。）
越南共产党认为自己可以充当资本主义企业的领导者，而越南的商人则抱怨，越共实行的政府监管让他们不堪重负。
尽管这里有难以抑制的奋发热情，人口也很年轻，但许多人说，越南失去了方向。
"我在越南的21年里，从来没有在知识分子和企业家当中，见到过这么严重的对体制的不满，"越南一家投资公司印度支那资本(Indochina Capital)的首席执行官彼得·R·莱德(Peter R. Ryder)表示。"在商业界和党内，都开展了很有意义的辩论，这些人对国家未来的走向异常关切。"
在越南国会经济委员会4月初组织的春季经济论坛(Spring Economic Forum)上，与会者"纷纷争抢在麦克风前发言的机会"，参加论坛的著名经济学家黎登营(Le Dang Doanh)表示。他形容论坛上"争论激烈"。
他说，许多人都批评称，尽管经济结构需要深入调整，"但几乎什么都没有实施"。
黎登营说，"这是信任危机。每年都向公众承诺，情况会更好，但老百姓看不到。"
处于政治风暴中心的是2006年上任的越南总理阮晋勇(Nguyen Tan Dung)。阮晋勇行事风格急躁，还采取了雄心勃勃的计划来推动经济。这打破了党内官僚呆板的形象，最初为他赢得了支持。
但是由于他解散了一个顾问委员会，因而疏远了很多党内人士。该委员会一直是推动改革进程的一股领导力量。委员会成员包括马克思主义学者阮福祥，以及其他许多老党员。
更重要的是，阮晋勇推出的主要政策，即效仿韩国的私营企业集团，大力推动国有企业建设的做法，产生了负面后果。
经济学家表示，掌管这些企业高管与共产党官员关系紧密，通过扩张，这些企业进入了许多自己并没有能力管理的业务，还在股市和房地产市场上进行投机。两家最大的国有企业曾濒临倒闭，现在仍然处在资不抵债的边缘。
马克思主义学者阮福祥表示，共产党内部的紧张局面随着经济状况恶化，已经出现加剧。
2月，他帮助撰写了一份致越共总书记的公开信，敦促对该国的宪法进行改革，从而"确保真正的权力属于人民"。他还没有得到回应。
阮福祥说，他从为武文杰总理(Vo Van Kiet)担任顾问时，就迫切地想要推动变革。武文杰曾帮助在20世纪90年代改革越南经济。
然而现在他感到时间紧迫。他患上了癌症，不过病情似乎正在缓解。他谈道，疾病带来了某种精神解放，促使他讲出了现在心中的真话。
"简单说，马克思是个伟大的思想家，"他说。"但如果没有马克思，那会更好。"
In Hard Times, Open Dissent and Repression Rise in Vietnam
April 25, 2013
HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — His bookshelves are filled with the collected works of Marx, Engels and Ho Chi Minh, the hallmarks of a loyal career in the Communist Party, but Nguyen Phuoc Tuong, 77, says he is no longer a believer. A former adviser to two prime ministers, Mr. Tuong, like so many people in Vietnam today, is speaking out forcefully against the government.
"Our system now is the totalitarian rule of one party," he said in an interview at his apartment on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City. "I come from within the system — I understand all its flaws, all its shortcomings, all its degradation," he said. "If the system is not fixed, it will collapse on its own."
Justin Mott for the International Herald Tribune
Apartments are crowded next to a railroad track in Ho Chi Minh City. Unemployment and other economic woes have emerged, but the economy is still growing.
Justin Mott for the International Herald Tribune
"If the system is not fixed, it will collapse on its own."NGUYEN PHUOC TUONG, a Marxist scholar who was adviser to two Vietnamese prime ministers
The party that triumphed over American-backed South Vietnamese forces in 1975 is facing rising anger over aslumping economy and is rived by disputes pitting traditionalists who want to maintain the country's guiding socialist principles and a monopoly on power against those calling for a more pluralist system and the full embrace of capitalism.
Perhaps most important, the party is struggling to reckon with a society that is better informed and more critical because of news and opinion that spread through the Internet, circumventing the state-controlled news media.
Since unifying the country 38 years ago, the Communist Party has been tested by conflicts with China and Cambodia, financial crises and internal rifts. The difference today, according to Carlyle A. Thayer, one of the leading foreign scholars of Vietnam, is that criticism of the leadership "has exploded across the society."
In an otherwise authoritarian environment, divisions in the party have actually helped encourage free speech because factions are eager to tarnish one another, Dr. Thayer said.
"There's a contradiction in Vietnam," he said. "Dissent is flourishing, but at the same time, so is repression."
As dissident voices have multiplied among Vietnam's 92 million people, the government has tried to crack down. Courts have sentenced numerous bloggers, journalists and activists to prison, yet criticism, especially online, continues seemingly unabated. The government blocks certain Internet sites, but many Vietnamese use software or Web sites to maneuver around the censorship.
"Many more people are trying to express themselves than before, criticizing the government," said Truong Huy San, an author, journalist and well-known blogger. "And what they are saying is much more severe."
Mr. San, who is on a fellowship at Harvard, is the author of "The Winning Side," perhaps the first critical, comprehensive history of Vietnam since 1975 by someone inside the country. Widely read in Vietnam, the two-volume work, written under the pen name Huy Duc, was printed without a permit from the government and describes such acts as the purges of disloyal party members and the seizure of south Vietnamese business owners' assets.
For casual visitors to Vietnam, surface evidence of economic progress may make it hard to understand the deep pessimism that many express in the country. Millions of people who a decade ago had only bicycles now speed around on motor scooters past factories and office towers.
The economy blossomed in the 1990s after reforms gave birth to Vietnam's awkward mix of a market economy closely chaperoned by the Communist Party. Even now, the Vietnamese economy is still projected to grow at about 4 percent to 5 percent this year, thanks in part to strong exports of rice, coffee and other agricultural products.
But the real estate market is frozen by overcapacity, banks are saddled with bad loans, newspapers are running articles about rising unemployment, and the country is ranked among some of the world's most corrupt by Transparency International, a global corruption monitor. (The country ranks 123rd on a list of 176, in which those with low numbers are the least corrupt.)
Vietnamese business people complain of overbearing government regulations imposed by a party that believes it can be the vanguard of capitalist enterprises.
And many say that Vietnam is directionless, despite its seemingly irrepressible industriousness and youthful population.
"In my 21 years here I've never seen this level of disenchantment with the system among the intelligentsia and entrepreneurs," said Peter R. Ryder, the chief executive of Indochina Capital, an investment company in Vietnam. "There's very meaningful debate within the business community and within the party — people who are superconcerned about the direction that the country is going."
At the Spring Economic Forum, a conference held in early April that is organized by the economic committee of the National Assembly, participants "were fighting to have a chance at the microphone," according to Le Dang Doanh, a leading economist who attended the forum, which he described as "stormy."
He said there was widespread criticism that although the economy needed profound restructuring, "almost nothing has been implemented."
"It's a crisis of trust," Mr. Doanh said. "Better times have been promised every year, but people don't see it."
At the center of the political storm is Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who has been in power since 2006. Mr. Dung's brash style and ambitious program for the economy initially won him supporters because he broke from the mold of the stodgy party apparatchik.
But he alienated many party members by dismantling an advisory board that had been a leading force behind the reform program (and that board included Mr. Tuong, the Marxist scholar, among many other senior party members).
More important, Mr. Dung's trademark policy, his forceful push to build up state-run companies along the lines of South Korea's private conglomerates, backfired.
Run by executives with close ties to the Communist Party hierarchy, the enterprises expanded into many businesses they were unqualified to manage, economists say, and speculated in the stock market and in real estate. Two of the largest state enterprises nearly collapsed and remain close to insolvency.
Mr. Tuong, the Marxist scholar, says the tensions in the Communist Party have been heightened by the troubles with the economy.
In February, he helped write an open letter to the party's general secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong, urging changes to the country's Constitution that would "ensure that real power belongs to the people." He has yet to receive a response.
Mr. Tuong says he has been eager to promote change since his days as adviser to Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, who helped overhaul the economy in the 1990s.
But today he feels the pressure of time. He has cancer, though it appears to be in remission, and he talks about the disease as a sort of intellectual liberation spurring him to tell what he now views as the truth.
"In a nutshell, Marx is a great thinker," he said. "But if we never had Marx it would have been even better."
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