習近平如何推進改革？今秋見分曉
2013年06月25日
未來數月，中國可能會持續上演一出政治大戲，而本周席捲銀行界的動蕩是其最新的篇章，這齣戲便是：習主席大戰習主席。
中國的新任領導人習近平激起了外界對大膽的經濟自由化的期望，但他同時把自己塑造為共產黨統治的堅定捍衛者，這使得哪怕是內部人士也不確定，他會把改革推進到何種程度。改革可能會損害國家控制的利益網，並擾亂習近平和許多官員重視的穩定局面。
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Victor Ruiz Garcia/Reuters
中華人民共和國主席習近平。
一些中國官員提出的改革措施包括：減少某些對能源和自然資源價格的國家管控，在國有大企業長期壟斷的行業中鼓勵私營經濟，以及在金融業中引入更多的市場競爭。
不過，面對另外一些官員和國有企業的反對，以及黨內領導層對社會穩定及經濟增長放緩的擔憂，這種雄心可能會步履維艱。分析人士表示，在習近平及其同僚進行這些艱難決策之時，可能面臨種種經濟震蕩和潛在困難，銀行間拆借利率的動蕩不過是其中一例。
「已經累積了很多風險，在推進真正的改革的時候，他們需要避免引發恐慌，」位於北京的中國人民大學經濟學院教授、中國公共經濟與治理研究中心主任陶然說，「政治上非常困難。」
上周，中國人民銀行一反常態地沒有出手干預以緩解資金緊張，於是銀行間拆借利率於上周四飆升，導致銀行間借貸幾近停滯。這一舉措看來屬於政府迫使國有銀行減少向低效率和高風險項目借貸的努力的一部分，此類項目一直受到地方官員與有政治關係的投資者的青睞，其中許多投資商為國有企業。
周五，中國人民銀行似乎稍微鬆動了其強硬立場，一些金融業高管也表示央行在向放款人釋放更多資金，從而安撫了投資者（他們對中國經濟增長的憂慮已蔓延到整個股市）。銀行間利率從周四的歷史高點回落，不過形勢仍動蕩不安。
談到錢荒問題，巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)駐香港的亞洲新興市場經濟研究部首席經濟分析師黃益平表示：「我認為這是決策者在展示決心。他們希望用短期的陣痛換取長期的收益。他們目前所做的是自由化的準備措施，或許也是改善市場秩序的準備措施。」
在中國，共產黨的權力植根於政治與經濟控制的結合，不過，李克強總理等官員曾表示，為了培育新的增長源，有必要進行市場自由化。
不過，此類改革也許要拿國有銀行、地方政府，以及政府控制的企業和投資工具等黨的權力部門開刀，進行痛苦、甚至是高風險的手術。中國的領導人面臨著一個大難題：他們希望能保持必需的經濟增長，以滿足日益繁榮且敢於發聲的社會，他們同時又擔心，提議中的改革可能會侵蝕其政治地盤、破壞穩定，而在他們眼中，正是這些鞏固了一黨統治。
黨報《學習時報》前編輯鄧聿文稱：「經濟改革，我指的是真正的改革，現在無疑包括政治體制的問題，因為國家權力過度是個關鍵議題。」鄧聿文曾直言不諱地對一些國家政策進行批評，於今年遭該報解職。
作為黨的領導人，習近平必須在今年秋季，也就是召開中共中央委員會全會的時候，至少拿出這些問題的部分答案。該委員會有200餘位高官作為有投票權的委員，每年在遠離公眾之地至少召開一次全會。這次會議將是本屆委員會的第三次全會，按照慣例，歷屆的三中全會一般會確立經濟政策走向。習近平和其他一些官員已做出表示，他們希望在本次全會上揭曉重大改革舉措。
「無論怎樣，這次全會總會成為一個分水嶺，」華盛頓國際戰略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)中心的中國問題專家克里斯托弗·K·約翰遜(Christopher K. Johnson)表示，「會議要麼會表明改革的方向，要麼會顯示黨內停滯的程度。」
1978年召開的那次三中全會是最著名的一次，按照黨的描述，那次會議是鄧小平改變中國的時代的開端。習近平似乎也希望這次全會能賦予他類似於鄧小平的光環。一位與多位領導人物關係密切的中國商人透露，他委任一位主張加速向市場經濟轉向的幕僚劉鶴為這次會議進行準備，這位商人為了保護自己與官員的關係要求匿名。
本月，習近平曾在加利福尼亞對美國總統奧巴馬錶示，他決心重塑中國經濟。中國官方通訊社新華社報道，習近平對奧巴馬說，「為了推動經濟健康持續發展，必須深化改革。」
劉鶴現在正牽頭一組官員和研究人員起草提議，這些提議可能會在今年晚些時候的中央委員會的會議上得到支持。據上述匿名商人透露，這些提議中包括逐步放開國家對銀行利率的控制、取消阻止農村居民被正式吸納進城鎮的障礙、允許民營企業在某些直到現在都由國有企業控制的行業中投資、在自然資源和能源的定價中讓競爭扮演更重要的角色。
巴克萊經濟學家黃益平也描述了提議的上述變動。他說：「這些可能並不是最終實施的計劃，但它們是由政府制定的，所以在我看來至少顯示出他們很嚴肅，決心要做出改變。」
劉鶴的職務包括中央財經領導小組辦公室主任。今年61歲的劉鶴曾在美國西東大學(Seton Hall University)學習一年，並在1995年從哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院(John F. Kennedy School of Government)畢業，獲得公共管理碩士學位。
加州大學聖迭戈分校(University of California in San Diego)研究中國經濟政策的教授巴里·J·諾頓(Barry J. Naughton)說：「我想毫無問題的是，劉鶴顯然是傾向市場的。」
支持市場化改革的人也並非只有劉鶴一人。中國總理李克強就曾稱讚過市場競爭和私營部門，財政部長樓繼偉也鼓吹過金融自由化。
然而中國政府的經濟議程中，針對可能的改革舉措的步調、重心、次序仍然充滿了緊張的爭論。南京東南大學經濟學家華生說，「人們可能都在喊相同的口號，但需要改革什麼還存在很大的爭議。」華生在政策辯論中也是一個重要的聲音。
上述接近高層官員的商人透露，高級官員們決定在即將舉行的全會上，暫不討論如何處理國有企業的問題。國有企業主導着經濟中極大的部分，經常效率低下，有時還會出現腐敗現象。
「它們已經形成了很強大的集團，而且許多企業的高管本身就是黨內高層官員，」黃益平評價國有企業說，「在近期，我們肯定不會看到直接私有化國有企業的情況，但這一點不足為奇。」
上一任中國領導人胡錦濤10年前曾在中央委員會的會議上宣稱要推進經濟改革，但許多經濟學家表示，他浪費了兌現諾言的機會，也有相當一些官員私下表達過相同的看法。分析人士說，如果習近平也這樣做，風險就會更大。隨着廉價的勞動人群逐漸老化、勞動人口規模減少、土地和自然資源價格提高，中國輕鬆實現增長的空間正在縮小。
人民大學教授陶然說，另一種擔憂是，政府或許會太過倉促地採取行動，還沒等到更多市場驅動的增長產生效果，就取消政府對金融體系的控制。他說，在金融領域草率行動，可能會暴露和激化國有企業及地方政府與債務相關的問題。
「如果不先進行真正的產業改革，就開展金融改革，那麼你不會得到新的增長源，還會進一步惡化資產泡沫，」陶然說，「這個體系已經很脆弱了。」
China's New President Sets Up a Potential Showdown, With Himself
June 25, 2013
The turbulence that struck China's banks this week is the latest episode in a political drama likely to play out in coming months: President Xi versus President Xi.
The country's new leader, Xi Jinping, has ignited expectations of bold economic liberalization, but he has also cast himself as a resolute defender of Communist Party control, leaving even insiders uncertain about how far he will push changes that could strain the webs of state patronage and unsettle the stability that he and many other officials also prize.
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Victor Ruiz Garcia/Reuters
President Xi Jinping of China
The changes proposed by some Chinese officials include rolling back certain state controls on prices of energy and natural resources, encouraging private business in industries long dominated by state conglomerates and bringing more market competition into the financial sector.
But such ambitions could falter in the face of opposition from other officials and state-owned companies, as well as the concerns of party leaders about social instability and slowing growth. The turmoil of bank-to-bank loans is but one example of the kind of economic jitters and pitfalls that Mr. Xi and his colleagues could confront as they grapple with these policy choices, analysts said.
"So much risk has already been accumulated, but they need to avoid panic while pushing forward real reforms," said Tao Ran, an economics professor and director of the China Center for Public Economics and Governance at Renmin University in Beijing. "It's politically very difficult."
The interest rates that banks charge to lend to each other shot up Thursday and lending between banks nearly seized up after the People's Bank of China uncharacteristically failed to intervene to relieve a cash squeeze. The move seemed to be part of the government's effort to force state banks to cut lending to inefficient or risk-laden programs favored by local officials and politically connected investors, many of them state-owned companies.
On Friday, the People's Bank of China appeared to retreat a bit from its hard-line stance, and financial industry executives said the central bank was releasing more money for lenders, calming investors whose worries about China's growth had rippled across stock markets. Bank-to-bank rates climbed down from Thursday's record highs, but the situation remained volatile.
"I thought that was a show of policy makers' determination," Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong, said of the cash crunch. "They want to impose some near-term pain for long-term benefits. What they are doing is preparing steps for liberalization and, hopefully, for better market discipline."
In China, the Communist Party's power rests on a marriage of political and economic control, but Prime Minister Li Keqiang and other officials have said market liberalization is needed to foster new sources of growth.
Yet those changes could require painful, even risky, surgery on the party's limbs of power: state-owned banks, local governments, and companies and investment vehicles controlled by the government. And that is the conundrum facing China's leaders: they want to maintain the growth needed to satisfy an increasingly prosperous and vociferous society, yet worry that the proposed changes could erode the political reach and stability they see as underpinning one-party rule.
"Economic reform, I mean real reform, undoubtedly now involves questions about the political system, because excessive state power is a key issue," said Deng Yuwen, who was dismissed this year as an editor at a party newspaper, The Study Times, after bluntly criticizing state policies.
Mr. Xi, as party leader, must come up with at least part of his answer to these questions by autumn, when the party's Central Committee gathers. With slightly more than 200 senior officials as full, voting members, the committee meets in seclusion at least once a year to approve policy priorities. This meeting, or plenum, is the third for this cohort of the committee — by custom, third plenums set the direction for economic policy — and Mr. Xi and other officials have indicated that they want this gathering to unveil major changes.
"The plenum is going to be a watershed one way or another," said Christopher K. Johnson, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Either because of what it says about the direction of reform or about the degree of stagnation in the party."
The most famous third plenum, in 1978, is portrayed by the party as the start of Deng Xiaoping's transformative era. Mr. Xi appears to hope that the next plenum will give him some of Mr. Deng's aura. He has assigned Liu He, an adviser who advocates faster steps toward a market economy, to prepare for the meeting, said a Chinese businessman close to several leaders. He spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his access to officials.
Mr. Xi told President Obama in California this month that he was determined to remold the Chinese economy. "We must deepen reforms to promote healthy and sustained economic development," Mr. Xi told Mr. Obama, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency.
Mr. Liu is overseeing teams of officials and researchers developing proposals that may be endorsed at the Central Committee meeting later this year. According to the Chinese businessman who requested anonymity, those proposals include gradually freeing bank interest rates from state controls; lifting barriers preventing rural residents from being officially absorbed into cities; allowing private companies to invest in some sectors until now controlled by state companies; and giving competition a bigger role in setting prices for natural resources and energy.
"These may not be the final programs to be implemented, but these are organized by the government, so that at least shows to me that they're serious and determined to make changes," said Mr. Huang, the Barclays economist, who has also described the proposed changes.
Mr. Liu's roles include running the office of an elite party group that steers economic policy. Now 61, he studied at Seton Hall University for a year and graduated from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard with a master's in public administration in 1995.
"I think there's no question: Liu He is clearly pro-market," said Barry J. Naughton, a professor at the University of California in San Diego who studies Chinese economic policy.
Nor is Mr. Liu the lone voice advocating market overhauls. Mr. Li, the prime minister, has praised market competition and the private sector, and Lou Jiwei, the finance minister, has advocated financial liberalization.
Yet the Chinese government's economic agenda is rife with tensions about the pace, focus and sequence of possible changes. "People may shout the same slogans, but there's a lot of controversy over just what needs reforming," said Hua Sheng, an economist at Southeast University, in Nanjing, China, who has been a prominent voice in policy debates.
Senior officials have put off considering at the coming plenum how to deal with state-owned corporations, which dominate swaths of the economy — often inefficiently, sometimes corruptly — according to the Chinese businessman close to senior officials.
"They have become a very powerful group, and many of the senior managers are senior party officials themselves," said Mr. Huang, the economist, speaking of state-owned enterprises, known as SOEs. "We're not going to see outright privatization of SOEs any time soon, but that's to be expected."
China's previous leader, Hu Jintao, vowed economic changes at a Central Committee meeting a decade ago, but he squandered chances to act on those vows, many economists and, in private, quite a few officials say. If Mr. Xi does the same, the risks will be worse, analysts said. The room for easy growth in China is tapering off as the population of cheap labor ages and shrinks, and land and natural resources become costlier.
But another fear is that the government could act too hastily, removing state controls on the financial system before more market-driven growth has time to kick in, said Professor Tao of Renmin University. Rash moves in the finance sector could expose and exacerbate the debt-related problems of state-run companies and local governments, he said.
"If financial reforms are started first without real sectoral reforms, then you don't get new sources of growth, and you could make asset bubbles even worse," Professor Tao said. "This system is already fragile."
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