不祥的數字：中共13名落馬的政治新星
過去4年，中共中央委員會共有13名候補委員落馬。而1921年建黨至2012年的91年裡，合共只有9人被撤
2016年7月8日 早上7:00中共十八大4年前召開以來，黨高層內部有眾多政治新星落馬，人數高於此前91年裡的總和。
2012年11月，中共十八大在北京召開，此後中共第十八屆中央委員會171名候補委員當中，迄今共有13人落馬。而1921年建黨至2012年止，合共只有9人被撤。
黨幹部往往以候補委員身份為踏腳石，爭取日後成為正式委員。任何人必須先成為中央委員會候補委員或正式委員，才有機會晉身政治局或政治局常委會。
前總理朱鎔基更是從候補委員一躍成為國家領導人。他於1987年成為中共第十三屆中央委員會候補委員，5年後在一次領導層重組中，獲提拔為政治局常委。
另一位官運相似但晉升過程較慢的是黨總書記習近平的主要助手──中央辦公廳主任栗戰書。栗戰書被認為是第十六屆（2002年）及第十七屆中央委員會候補委員的"黑馬＂，2012年晉身政治局。
相對年輕的黨幹部若成為中央委員會候補委員，之後的5年內又沒有犯下重大錯誤，就很可能在中共下一次全國代表大會中成為正式委員。因此，中共十八大召開以來有13名候補委員落馬，箇中意義相當重大。另一方面，中共十九大將於明年底舉行，對於最高席位的角逐也日趨白熱化。
中共是全球最大的政黨，黨員達8800萬人，但只有2200名由黨領導人親自挑選的代表，有權在全國代表大會中選出中央委員會委員。之後中央委員會將負責選出政治局委員及常委。
候補委員根據收到的黨代表投票數目排名，排名最前的一批將最先填補中央委員會的空缺。截至上月底，205名現任正式委員當中，有8人因貪腐被撤。
而13名候補委員當中，大多數人被撤的同時，其所屬政治派系的重量級人物也告落馬。
被撤的候補委員包括前四川省委副書記李春城（60歲）及原中石油副總經理王永春（55歲），兩人都是前政治局常委周永康的長期親信。周永康去年被裁定貪腐罪名成立，被判無期徒刑。
至於山西省會太原市的前市委書記陳川平（54歲），則在山西出身的前中央辦公廳主任令計劃落馬後遭到牽連。令計劃本週一（7月4日）被判無期徒刑。
而前中央軍委副主席郭伯雄被捕後半年，曾任蘭州軍區副政委的解放軍中將范長秘（61歲）也於2014年底接受調查。郭伯雄和范長秘的軍旅生涯，都起步於隸屬蘭州軍區的陝西第47軍團。
原江蘇省政府常務副省長李雲峰（59歲）、江蘇省會南京的原市委書記楊衛澤（53歲），以及原雲南省委副書記仇和（59歲），獲擢升前均曾在江蘇省任職多年，屬於所謂的"江蘇幫＂。
另有3名候補委員屬於共青團派系，即所謂的"團派＂。由於這個派系的成員相對年輕，所以一旦落馬，損失可說是最大。該三人為前廣州市委書記萬慶良（52歲）、前內蒙古自治區常務副主席潘逸陽（54歲），以及前南寧市委書記余遠輝（52歲）。
其他落馬的候補委員包括原廣東省政協主席朱明國（59歲），他一直被視為前廣東省委書記汪洋的親信。另外還有山東省會濟南的前市委書記王敏（59歲）；副總理張高麗擔任山東省委書記期間，王敏是其秘書。
前北京市委副書記呂錫文（60歲）是唯一落馬的女性候補委員。前政治局委員劉琪在2002至2012年出任北京市委書記期間，呂錫文兩次獲得提拔。
The 13 fallen stars: (first row L-R) Zhu Mingguo; Yang Weize; Wang Yongchun; Wang Min; Wan Qingliang; Qiu He-; (second row L-R) Yu Yuanhui; Pan Yiyang; Chen Chuanping; Fan Changmi; Li Chuncheng; Li Yunfeng; Lu Xiwen. Photo: SCMP Pictures
13名落馬的政治新星（圖片來源：南華早報）
落馬的13名候補委員平均年齡為56歲。換言之，明年中共全國代表大會換屆後，他們都有可能尋求連任候補委員或成為正式委員，續任中央委員會五年一屆的任期，最多甚至可以尋求連任三屆。
資深中國觀察家劉銳紹表示，部份有潛力成為正式委員的候補委員被指經濟犯罪、甚至犯下政治過失，若他們屬於敵對派系，中共最高領導人就可能視他們為清洗的目標，借此為提拔自己的親信鋪路，同時向其他人傳達政治信息。
他說，不合群就會遭到懲罰。眾所周知的貪腐高幹一旦遭調查，其他人就可能改變政治立場和效忠對象。如此一來，習近平就無需將所有腐敗官員一網打盡。而如果這些官員認為習近平一個都不會放過，就有可能聯合起來攻擊他。
新西蘭惠靈頓維多利亞大學的新西蘭當代中國研究中心主任薄智躍認為，大多數候補委員都沒有受到習近平注意，不過上述13名被撤的候補委員此前應已受到中紀委密切監察，因為他們的官階全都在副部級或以上。
薄智躍表示，黨主席毛澤東在1960年代與時任國家主席劉少琦陷入激烈的權力鬥爭，當時毛澤東曾試圖在中央委員會內爭取大多數支持。但如今黨內民主制度的重點已不在於中央委員會的多數或少數支持，最高領導人只需尋求政治局或政治局常委會的意見。
劉銳紹稱，政治鬥爭的重點在於在政治局爭取足夠的支持。雖然政治局的構成取決於中央委員會全體委員的投票，但候選人人數一般都與空缺席位相當。
版權聲明：《南華早報中文網》所有文章版權由香港《南華早報》集團所有
Why 13 is an unlucky number for China's would-be Communist Party high-flyers
More alternate members of party Central Committee have been booted out in last four years than in previous 91
More rising political stars have fallen off the ladder to top Communist Party jobs since the 18th party congress, less than four years ago, than in the previous 91 years of party history.
Thirteen of the 171 alternate members of the party's 18th Central Committee have fallen to earth since the November 2012 congress. Before that, only nine had been ousted since the founding of the party in 1921.
Alternate membership is an often used stepping stone for party cadres on the way to full membership of the Central Committee, and nobody has ever been promoted to the decision-making Politburo or its innermost Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) without first having served as an alternate or full member of the Central Committee.
Former premier Zhu Rongji was even catapulted from alternate member to state leader. He was made an alternate member of the party's 13th Central Committee in 1987 before going on to become a member of the PSC in a major power reshuffle five years later.
China's five-year plan review to confirm Communist Party Central Committee expulsions
One man on the same track but a slightly slower train is party general secretary Xi Jinping's right-hand man Li Zhanshu, the director of the Central Committee's General Office. Li was considered a "dark horse" as an alternate member of the 16th and 17th Central Committees, beginning in 2002, before landing a Politburo seat in 2012.
A party cadre who becomes an alternate member of the Central Committee at a relatively young age is very likely to become a full member at the next party congress if they avoid key mistakes in the intervening five years. That makes the downfall of 13 since the most recent party congress significant as the race heats up for top positions at the 19th party congress late next year.
The Chinese Communist Party is the world's biggest political party, with 88 million members, but just 2,200 representatives, handpicked by party leaders, elect its Central Committee at national congresses every five years, with the Central Committee then electing the members of the Politburo and PSC.
The alternate members are ranked according to the number of votes they receive from party representatives, with those at the top of the list the first to fill Central Committee vacancies. By the end of last month, eight of 205 incumbent full members had been booted out for corruption.
Most of the 13 alternate members fell from grace at the same time as a political heavyweight of a political clique the members were associated with was removed.
China's new Central Committee members urged to disclose assets
Among the disgraced alternate members, Li Chuncheng, 60, former deputy party chief of the southwestern province of Sichuan, and Wang Yongchun, 55, former deputy general manager of China National Petroleum Corporation, were long-time protégés of former PSC member Zhou Yongkang, who was jailed for life last year after being found guilty of corruption.
Chen Chuanping, 54, former party boss of Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province, was implicated following the downfall of fellow Shanxi native Ling Jihua, former director of the party's General Office, who was jailed for life on Monday.
People's Liberation Army Lieutenant General Fan Changmi, 61, the former deputy political commissar of the old Lanzhou Military Region, was placed under investigation in late 2014, before the arrest of former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Guo Boxiong half a year later. Both Guo and Fan started their military careers in the 47th Army Corps in Shaanxi province, which was part of the Lanzhou Military Region.
Li Yunfeng, 59, former executive vice-governor of Jiangsu province, Yang Weize, 53, former party chief in Nanjing, Jiangsu's provincial capital, and Qiu He, 59, former deputy party secretary of the southwestern province of Yunnan, all belonged to the so-called "Jiangsu Gang" after serving in the affluent province for years before promotions.
However, it could be argued that three ousted alternate members who belonged to the Communist Youth League clique, known as Tuanpai, had the most to lose because of their relative youth. They are Wan Qingliang, 52, former party chief of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, Pan Yiyang, 54, former executive vice-chairman of the Inner Mongolia region, and Yu Yuanhui, 52, former party head of Nanning, the capital of the Guangxi region.
Risers and fallers in Central Committee voting
Other to have fallen include Zhu Mingguo, 59, a former head of the Guangdong provincial Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference who was long considered an ally of Vice-Premier Wang Yang, a former Guangdong party boss, and Wang Min, 59, a former party chief in Jinan, the capital of Shandong province, who was a secretary to Vice-Premier Zhang Guoli when Zhang was party secretary of the eastern province.
The only ousted female alternate member, former Beijing deputy party secretary Lu Xiwen, 60, was promoted twice when former Politburo member Liu Qi was party boss of Beijing between 2002 and 2012.
The average age of the 13 ousted alternate members is just over 56, meaning they were in the running for one, two or even three more five-year terms – as alternate or full members – following the reshuffle expected at next year's party congress.
Veteran China-watcher Johnny Lau Yui-siu said top party leaders could winnow out some potential full members accused of making economic or, more importantly, political mistakes, especially when they belonged to rival cliques. That provided a clearer path for their own cronies and sent a political message to others.
"Nonconformity gets punished," he said. "Once notoriously corrupt high-ranking cadres have been subject to investigations, others may change their political stance and shift their loyalty.
"In this way, it's not necessary for Xi to target all morally degraded officials. And they might rally to attack Xi if they believed he would spare none of them."
Professor Bo Zhiyue, the director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre at Victoria University of Wellington, said he did not think most alternate members would be on Xi's radar, although the 13 disgraced alternate members would have been under scrutiny by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party's graft buster, because all of them held positions of vice-ministerial level or above.
Central Committee vote belies much touted intra-party democracy
Bo said that in the 1960s, party chairman Mao Zedong sought to secure a majority in the Central Committee during a fierce power struggle with then president Liu Shaoqi, "but intraparty democracy nowadays is no longer concerned with whether there's a minority or majority [in the Central Committee]; the top leader only has to consult the Politburo or the Politburo Standing Committee."
Lau said the key point in a political struggle was to secure enough votes in the decision-making Politburo, and even though the votes of full Central Committee members decided its make-up, the number of candidates usually matched the number of vacancies.
No comments:
Post a Comment