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回顾2008：十大蠢人蠢事 2008 年 12 月 26 日 08:29 在 标 准普尔500指数下跌40%，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数的30只成份股中只有两只上涨的一年中，实在是有些非常糟糕的想法和做法。但即使在境况不佳之 时，还是有些做法比其它做法更加糟糕，我们在下面列出了几个。读者朋友们，如果你们认为有哪些最糟糕行为可以贡献的话，可以在评论栏中与我们分享。    5. 任何等待房地产商复苏的人：建筑类股在 2005年至2007年初一直持续上涨，但在2007年剩余时间大幅下挫，成为那些没有见过JDS Uniphase在互联网泡沫后从未反弹的投资者的青睐对象。基金Select Sector SPDRs Homebuilders ETF继2007年下跌48%之后，在2008年又下跌了34%。  7. 柯克•科克里安(Kirk Kerkorian)陷入汽车业泥潭： 在以微利退出在通用汽车(General Motors)的投资，而未能改变这家公司之后，这位Tracinda Corp.的老板较为低调地投资于福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)，希望能得到最好的结果。但这比他在通用汽车的投资更加糟糕，科克里安在福特汽车上损失惨重，根据提交的公开文件推算损失接近6亿美元。鉴于克莱 斯勒(Chrysler)是家私人公司，科克里安可能会耗尽他在这个领域的投资，不过谁知道呢。 8. 乐观的策略师：根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据，今年3月的时候，对标准普尔500指数年底点位的平均预测值为1591点。当时，这相当于今年该指数会上涨20%。 9. 欧洲央行： 尽管全球其它主要央行终于认识到，信贷市场和经济进入了死亡螺旋，但欧洲央行仍坚持认为通货膨胀才是真正的问题。直到10月份，欧洲银行业的部长才最终认 清了问题的实质，但也只是表示他们没有能力做很多事情。Brown Brothers Harriman外汇策略主管钱德勒(Marc Chandler)说，美国政府的各种力量都被发动起来应对这场危机，而在欧洲，他们仍然无动于衷，这里面既有结构复杂的原因，也有规模庞大的原因，其中 也有幸灾乐祸。 10. MarketBeat宣称债券的涨势将会终结。不错，4月份的时候美国国债价格出现了回落。当时看来别无它路可走，但美国国债却做到了。 David Gaffen
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2008 Lookback: Worst Calls of the Year 2008 年 12 月 26 日 08:29In a year when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has lost 40% and just two of the 30 Dow industrials components are posting positive returns on the year, there has been no shortage of really, really, bad ideas and actions. But even in bad times, some calls turn out worse than others, and here's just a few of ours. Readers, if you've got any really terrible calls to contribute, let's hear about 'em in the comments. 1. Letting Lehman Brothers Go: The popular theory headed into 2008 was that it was better to let failing companies go because it helps "cleanse the system" and is, in the long run, better for capitalism. And sure, when you're talking about a company notable mostly for a sock puppet mascot, that's all well and good. But the theorists ─ who never saw a company of this type go under, other than the fraudulent disaster that was Enron ─ would probably like to revisit their thoughts on the liquidation of Lehman Brothers, which was there one day, and gone the next, suddenly leaving a mess of counterparties exposed to various Lehman risks without any map of how to unwind it all. What had been a generalized market malaise turned into a catastrophe, a two-month panicked shutdown of credit markets as trust went out the window. "The secondary market in credit stopped," said Don Galante, senior vice president at MF Global. 2. Henry Paulson Changes the TARP: Just when the market had gotten itself comfortable with the idea of the massive $700 billion lending program to buy lousy assets, Treasury Secretary Paulson, more or less out of nowhere, said the plan was morphing into a consumer-rescue plan, abandoning its previous mission. The Dow fell 4.7% on November 12 in response, and the three-month yield fell to 0.15%. Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, summed up by saying that "Paulson has managed to get Congress upset while being unable to get credit flowing again." 3. Jerry Yang Plays Chicken with Microsoft…and Loses: Maybe in 1999, or even in 2006, then-Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang could have looked at an offer of $33 a share for the struggling Internet company from the Redmond, Wash. behemoth and brushed them aside, asking for more money. Not in 2008. After improving an already-generous offer, Microsoft decided it wasn't worth playing poker with Mr. Yang any longer, and halted negotiations on its $48.5 billion takeover bid. A few months later, with his stock now at about $11 a share, Mr. Yang declared that Microsoft's best option would still be to buy Yahoo. As if he's holding the cards. That old saw about looking around the room to find the sucker? It was you, Jerry. 4.Legg Mason's Bill Miller: The legendary fund manager's Legg Mason Value Trust fund beat the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index every year from 1991 to 2005. That streak was broken in 2006, but the real trouble didn't begin until this year, when Mr. Miller's tried-and-true strategy of buying aggressively on the dips backfired. Mr. Miller made big bets on financial shares recovering, and that hasn't happened ─ not even close. The fund, as of Monday, was down 57% on the year and now ranks as one of the worst in its class over the last three or five years, according to Morningstar. 5. Anybody Who Waited for Homebuilders to Rebound: The building stocks, high-flyers through 2005, 2006 and early 2007, were beaten like a drum through the rest of 2007, and became popular among those who never got over seeing JDS Uniphase never rebound from the Internet bubble. The Select Sector SPDRs Homebuilders ETF, despite falling 48% in 2007, dropped 34% in 2008. 6. The Erin Callan Hype: Ms. Callan was hailed as a straight-shooter when appointed chief financial officer, good at talking up the company's outlook and exuding confidence amid a tough time for the brokerage. But Ms. Callan, who was CFO for just six-and-a-half months, lost credibility and eventually was shown the door as Lehman crumbled. Furthermore, during her tenure as CFO, the firm spent oodles of money on buying back its own stock, at prices that were, as it turns out, really, really, high. Could it have been saved had it socked away that money? Probably not. But the chances would have been better. 7. Kirk Kerkorian Drives a Ford Into a Ditch: After managing to eke out a meager gain in a General Motors investment without changing the company, the head of Tracinda Corp. invested in Ford Motor Co. more passively, and hoped for the best. This turned out worse than his GM investment, as Mr. Kerkorian lost a bundle on Ford, as public filings suggest a loss of nearly $600 million. With Chrysler a private company, Mr. Kerkorian has likely exhausted his bets in this sector ─ but one never knows. 8. Optimistic Strategists: As of March, the year-end predictions for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index averaged out to 1591, according to Bespoke Investment Group. At the time, it would have represented a 20% gain. 9. The European Central Bank. While the rest of the large central banks of the world eventually came to realize that credit markets and economies were headed into something of a death spiral, the ECB was still clinging to the idea that inflation was really the problem ─ all the way into October, when the European banking ministers finally caught on, only to say they didn't have the ability to do much. "The various powers of the U.S. government are being brought to bear on this crisis while in Europe, they're still hamstrung, partly by their complex structure, partly by sheer size, and partly by Schadenfreude," said Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. 10. MarketBeat calls the end of the bond rally. Yeah, we were off the mark on this one back in April. There really didn't seem to be any other way Treasurys were going to continue, but they did. David Gaffen
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