疫情蔓延，世界為豬共獨裁統治付出代價
武漢紅十字會醫院內穿著防護服的醫護人員。 HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES中國的領導人有時看起來像是三米多高的巨人，主持著一個龐大的政治和經濟體，他們的國家能以每週創辦一所大學的速度擴大高等教育，在最近三年裡用掉的水泥比美國整個20世紀用量還多。
川普總統一直稱讚中國國家主席習近平是「了不起的領導人」，邁克爾·彭博(Michael Bloomberg)說習近平「不是獨裁者」。但我們現在看到了習近平的威權主義模式給中國、乃至世界帶來的危險。
從去年12月1日起，武漢市已知最早的冠狀病毒感染開始表現出癥狀，12月下旬，武漢的醫療圈子裡開始有人發出警告。那本該是當局採取果斷行動的時刻。
他們確實採取了果斷行動~~不是針對病毒，而是針對那些試圖引起人們注意這個公共衛生威脅的檢舉人。一名在微信群裡提了病毒的醫生已受到中共的處分，並被迫承認錯誤。武漢警方通報約談了八名一線醫生，因他們傳播有關流行病的「未經核實的信息」，對他們進行了「教育、批評」。其實，習近平應該聽這些醫生的話，而不是懲罰他們。
武漢市長說，他直到本月下旬才獲准公開說病毒的事。而在那之前，人們一直在沒有採取任何預防措施的情況下進出武漢。
政府最終於1月23日下令封城，等於是將武漢所有的人隔離了。但據市長說，封城之前，已有500萬人離開了這座城市。
政府在初期對疫情的掩蓋，一定程度上導致醫院沒能儲備物資，現已出現檢測盒、口罩和防護裝備的嚴重短缺。一些醫生不得不用塑料文件夾自製護目鏡。
疫情在早期被掩蓋的一個原因是，習近平領導下的中國系統性地摧毀了新聞、社群媒體、非政府組織、法律業者以及其他可能問責的人和機構。這些機構在中國本來就不是很強大，但在習近平上台之前，政府偶爾會表現出對它們的容耐。
從2003年開始，我做了一系列中文部落格的嘗試，有時會意外地發現居然沒被審查，但現在已經不行了。在公民社會方面，習近平已讓中國後退了一大截，熄滅了幾乎所有的自由和監督的希望。
習近平治下日益威權的中國在應對冠狀病毒暴發上笨手笨腳，而出於同樣的原因，它也沒能妥善處理2018年開始的豬瘟病毒，導致中國養豬產業遭受滅頂之災，撲殺了接近全球總量四分之一的豬隻。
獨裁者常常做出糟糕的決定，因為他們得不到準確的信息：你壓制獨立的聲音時，你只會從周圍的人那裡得到奉承和好消息。有中國高官跟我說過，他們與地方官員見面時經常聽不到實話，他們需要派司機和秘書去尋找真相，判斷真實的民情。
由於這樣或那樣的原因，習近平已經犯了一系列的錯誤。他錯誤地處理並激化了香港的政治危機，他無意中確保了他不喜歡的人連任台灣總統，在他的領導下，中國與美國和許多其他國家的關係不斷惡化。
新型冠狀病毒已經蔓延到中國最西部的新疆地區，一個風險是病毒將在拘禁營中傳播，中國在拘禁營中關押著約100萬穆斯林，營中的衛生和醫療條件都很差。
病毒對任何國家來說都是挑戰，要恰當指出的是，中國在預防麻疹方面比美國做得好。中國還有其他值得讚揚的地方，比如今天在北京出生的嬰兒有比在華盛頓特區出生的嬰兒更長的預期壽命；更廣泛地說，美國有些貧困縣的新生兒預期壽命比柬埔寨或孟加拉國的還短，美國沒有資格在公共衛生問題上對他國指手畫腳。
但是，儘管需要保持點謙虛，還是讓我們擯棄某些美國人對習近平那種專制模式的盲目崇拜吧。
中國的社會契約一直是，公民雖然沒有投票權，但他們會過上越來越好的生活，但中國的經濟現在已是過去30年來最疲弱的~~新型冠狀病毒將進一步削弱經濟增長。習近平沒有履行這個契約中他那邊的承諾，儘管審查員們盡了最大努力，這仍可以從中國社群媒體上出現的憤怒情緒中看出來。
我不知道習近平是否會因他的執政失誤而遭到政治麻煩，但他應該承擔責任。他是個顧盼自雄的獨裁者，而這次，病毒暴發正在讓一些國民付出代價。
紀思道(Nicholas Kristof)自2001年成為時報專欄作家。他曾因對中國及達爾富爾的報導兩次獲得普立茲獎。歡迎在Twitter和Facebook上關注他。
翻譯：紐約時報中文網
疫情蔓延，世界為中國的獨裁統治付出代價
Coronavirus Spreads, and the World Pays for China's Dictatorship
武漢紅十字會醫院內穿著防護服的醫護人員。 HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESChina's leaders sometimes seem 10 feet tall, presiding over a political and economic juggernaut that has founded universities at a rate of one a week and that recently used more cement in three years than the United States did in the entire 20th century.
中國的領導人有時看起來像是三米多高的巨人，主持著一個龐大的政治和經濟體，他們的國家能以每週創辦一所大學的速度擴大高等教育，在最近三年裡用掉的水泥比美國整個20世紀用量還多。
President Trump has hailed China's president, Xi Jinping, as a "brilliant leader," and Michael Bloomberg says Xi is "not a dictator." But we're now seeing the dangers of Xi's authoritarian model, for China and the world.
川普總統一直稱讚中國國家主席習近平是「了不起的領導人」，邁克爾·彭博(Michael Bloomberg)說習近平「不是獨裁者」。但我們現在看到了習近平的威權主義模式給中國、乃至世界帶來的危險。
The first known coronavirus infection in the city of Wuhan presented symptoms beginning on Dec. 1, and by late December there was alarm in Wuhan's medical circles. That would have been the moment for the authorities to act decisively.
從去年12月1日起，武漢市已知最早的冠狀病毒感染開始表現出癥狀，12月下旬，武漢的醫療圈子裡開始有人發出警告。那本該是當局採取果斷行動的時刻。
And act decisively they did — not against the virus, but against whistle-blowers who were trying to call attention to the public health threat. A doctor who told a WeChat group about the virus was disciplined by the Communist Party and forced to admit wrongdoing. The police reported giving "education" and "criticism" to eight front-line doctors for "rumormongering" about the epidemic; instead of punishing these doctors, Xi should have listened to them.
China informed the World Health Organization of the virus on Dec. 31 but kept its own citizens in the dark; as other countries reported infections even as China pretended that it had confined the outbreak to Wuhan, Chinese joked grimly about a "patriotic" virus that only struck foreigners.
Wuhan's mayor said he wasn't authorized to discuss the virus until late this month. In that time, people traveled to and from Wuhan and didn't take precautions.
武漢市長說，他直到本月下旬才獲准公開說病毒的事。而在那之前，人們一直在沒有採取任何預防措施的情況下進出武漢。
The government finally ordered a lockdown on Jan. 23 that effectively quarantined people in Wuhan. But by then, according to the mayor, five million people had already fled the city.
政府最終於1月23日下令封城，等於是將武漢所有的人隔離了。但據市長說，封城之前，已有500萬人離開了這座城市。
Partly because the government covered up the epidemic in the early stages, hospitals were not able to gather supplies, and there are now major shortages of testing kits, masks and protective gear. Some doctors were reduced to making goggles out of plastic folders.
政府在初期對疫情的掩蓋，一定程度上導致醫院沒能儲備物資，現已出現檢測盒、口罩和防護裝備的嚴重短缺。一些醫生不得不用塑料文件夾自製護目鏡。
One reason for the early cover-up is that Xi's China has systematically gutted institutions like journalism, social media, nongovernmental organizations, the legal profession and others that might provide accountability. These institutions were never very robust in China, but on and off they were tolerated until Xi came along.
疫情在早期被掩蓋的一個原因是，習近平領導下的中國系統性地摧毀了新聞、社群媒體、非政府組織、法律業者以及其他可能問責的人和機構。這些機構在中國本來就不是很強大，但在習近平上台之前，政府偶爾會表現出對它們的容耐。
I conducted a series of experiments on Chinese blogs over the years beginning in 2003 and was sometimes surprised by what I could get away with — but no longer. Xi has dragged China backward in terms of civil society, crushing almost every wisp of freedom and oversight.
從2003年開始，我做了一系列中文部落格的嘗試，有時會意外地發現居然沒被審查，但現在已經不行了。在公民社會方面，習近平已讓中國後退了一大截，熄滅了幾乎所有的自由和監督的希望。
For the same reason that Xi's increasingly authoritarian China bungled the coronavirus outbreak, it also mishandled a swine fever virus that since 2018 has devastated China's hog industry and killed almost one-quarter of the world's pigs.
習近平治下日益威權的中國在應對冠狀病毒暴發上笨手笨腳，而出於同樣的原因，它也沒能妥善處理2018年開始的豬瘟病毒，導致中國養豬產業遭受滅頂之災，撲殺了接近全球總量四分之一的豬隻。
Dictators often make poor decisions because they don't get accurate information: When you squelch independent voices you end up getting just flattery and optimism from those around you. Senior Chinese officials have told me that they are routinely lied to on trips to meet local officials and must dispatch their drivers and secretaries to assess the truth and gauge the real mood.
獨裁者常常做出糟糕的決定，因為他們得不到準確的信息：你壓制獨立的聲音時，你只會從周圍的人那裡得到奉承和好消息。有中國高官跟我說過，他們與地方官員見面時經常聽不到實話，他們需要派司機和秘書去尋找真相，判斷真實的民情。
For this or other reasons, Xi has made a series of mistakes. He mishandled and inflamed the political crisis in Hong Kong, he inadvertently assured the re-election of his nemesis as president of Taiwan, and he has presided over worsening relations with the United States and many other countries.
由於這樣或那樣的原因，習近平已經犯了一系列的錯誤。他錯誤地處理並激化了香港的政治危機，他無意中確保了他不喜歡的人連任台灣總統，在他的領導下，中國與美國和許多其他國家的關係不斷惡化。
The coronavirus has already reached the Xinjiang region in the Far West of China, and one risk is that it will spread in the internment camps where China is confining about one million Muslims with poor sanitation and limited health care.
新型冠狀病毒已經蔓延到中國最西部的新疆地區，一個風險是病毒將在拘禁營中傳播，中國在拘禁營中關押著約100萬穆斯林，營中的衛生和醫療條件都很差。
Viruses are challenges for any country, and it's only fair to note that China does a better job protecting its people from measles than the U.S. does. It's a credit to China's system that a baby born in Beijing today has a longer life expectancy than a baby born in Washington, D.C. More broadly, the United States, which has several impoverished counties with lower life expectancy than Cambodia or Bangladesh, is in no position to lecture anyone about health.
病毒對任何國家來說都是挑戰，要恰當指出的是，中國在預防麻疹方面比美國做得好。中國還有其他值得讚揚的地方，比如今天在北京出生的嬰兒有比在華盛頓特區出生的嬰兒更長的預期壽命；更廣泛地說，美國有些貧困縣的新生兒預期壽命比柬埔寨或孟加拉國的還短，美國沒有資格在公共衛生問題上對他國指手畫腳。
But, with a dose of humility, let's get over any misplaced admiration some Americans have for Xi's authoritarian model.
但是，儘管需要保持點謙虛，還是讓我們擯棄某些美國人對習近平那種專制模式的盲目崇拜吧。
The Chinese social contract has been that citizens will not get ballots but will live steadily better lives, yet China's economy is now as weak as it has been in three decades — and the coronavirus will sap growth further. Xi is not living up to his end of the bargain, and this is seen in the anger emerging on Chinese social media despite the best efforts of censors.
中國的社會契約一直是，公民雖然沒有投票權，但他們會過上越來越好的生活，但中國的經濟現在已是過去30年來最疲弱的~~新型冠狀病毒將進一步削弱經濟增長。習近平沒有履行這個契約中他那邊的承諾，儘管審查員們盡了最大努力，這仍可以從中國社群媒體上出現的憤怒情緒中看出來。
I don't know if Xi is in political trouble for his misrule, but he should be. He's a preening dictator, and with this outbreak some citizens are paying a price.
我不知道習近平是否會因他的執政失誤而遭到政治麻煩，但他應該承擔責任。他是個顧盼自雄的獨裁者，而這次，病毒暴發正在讓一些國民付出代價。
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